It looks like Obama

By By Bob Martin, The Alabama Scene
A week out it is certain that Alabama will remain a solid red state on the electoral map. However when you look at the polls it appears that Sen. Barack Obama has a solid national lead in the presidential race. Sen. John McCain holds a 20-plus percent lead in the polling in our state.
Averages of the combined polling in 11 major national polls gave Sen. Obama an almost eight percent lead over Sen. McCain in the early part of this week. In the Electoral College numbers that polling gave Sen. Obama a lead of 306-157. This includes 258 solid electoral votes for Obama and 47 leaning his way for his projected Electoral College total. These combined polls show Sen. McCain with 137 solid electoral votes and 20 leaning his way for a total of 157. Toss up states hold 75 electoral votes.
The states in the leaning-Obama column are Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado. The leaning-McCain states are Georgia and West Virginia and most believe the Arizona senator will end up carrying those states. He has a five-point lead in Georgia and leads by seven in W. Virginia. Combined polling through Monday gave Obama leads of 6.5 percent in Ohio, 7.8 percent in Virginia, 6.5percent in Colorado and 8.4 percent in New Mexico. He could lose Ohio and Virginia plus all the toss-up states and still have 273 electoral votes, three over the necessary margin of 270. The toss-up states are Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina and Florida.
Gallup Poll Daily tracking data indicates that about 17percent of registered voters who plan to vote early had already voted as of Monday, with another 10-15percent saying they plan to vote before Election Day. Roughly equal percentages of Obama supporters and McCain supporters had taken advantage of the early voting opportunity through Monday.
About 160,000 new voters have now registered in Alabama to bring the number of registered voters in the state to 2.96 million. Over in Mississippi over 300,000 new voters have registered. During the last presidential election in Alabama, about 58 percent of registered Alabama voters showed up to vote. Eight years ago 66 percent voted. State election officials expect long lines at the polls next Tuesday.
Alabama polling firm has gone national
The Montgomery Polling firm, Anzalone Liszt Research, has become a rising star in the political polling world and is expanding its operations into Washington. The firm which directed two Democratic wins in two special Congressional elections this year in Louisiana and Mississippi, was called “the best pollster you’ve never heard of” this week by The Washington Post.
The Democratic survey and research firm became among the hottest in the nation after the 2006 election cycle in which it conducted polling for Democratic Congressional candidates in four elections — all of whom defeated Republican incumbents. “As our Washington-based client list has grown opening a D.C. office is a natural next step for our firm,” John Anzalone told me last week. Time has also listed Anzalone on its list of the “five most important people in American politics not running for president. He’s No. 3 behind Gov. Sarah Palin and her husband, Todd.
New voting system flags former Gov. Hunt
The state’s new computerized voter registration system flagged the name of former Gov. Guy Hunt as a person with a felony conviction.Voter registrars in Cullman County knew he had a right to vote because he was pardoned, and they never removed his name from the polling list. No one is sure how many people might be in the same category as Hunt, but records show it potentially could be in the thousands across Alabama. According to election officials, the situation happened because records from the state Board of Pardons and Paroles were not built into the new computer system. So those felons who have been pardoned better check before going to the polls.
IRS has nearly $5 million to hand out
The Internal Revenue Service has $4.56 million it wants to distribute in Alabama but can’t find the people who are supposed to get the money.
IRS spokesman Dan Boone said more than 5,300 economic stimulus checks and more than 1,500 regular tax refund checks were returned by the U.S. Postal Service due to mailing address errors in Alabama. Boone says all taxpayers have to do to receive their money is to update their addresses with the IRS.
There’s a deadline of Nov. 28 to update an address to receive an economic stimulus check. The Nov. 28 deadline does not apply to tax refund checks. They will be returned when taxpayers update their addresses.
Bob Martin is editor and publisher of The Montgomery Independent. E-mail him at: bob@montgomeryindependent.com