Creating the Davis phenomenon

By By Bob Martin, The Alabama Scene
It is absolutely amazing how the pollsters for Congressman Artur Davis have been able to bamboozle both the state media and the Washington press with polling numbers in the governor’s race that seem to me more optimistic than realistic.
On May 18, the Montgomery polling and political research firm of Anzalone/Liszt released numbers purporting to show that Davis leads Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, another announced candidate in the Democratic Primary, by 30 points and Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, who is considering the race, by 29 points.
In a separate poll of all voters Davis would win by five points over yet-to-announce, but perceived “dream candidate” for the Republicans, Bradley Byrne. Byrne has just announced he is stepping down from his position as chancellor of the state’s two-year colleges to become a candidate. Anzalone/Liszt did not release results against other GOP candidates including businessman and 2002 gubernatorial candidate Tim James. Asked by MSNBC if they polled a Davis-James matchup, the reply was “we will have to confer with the campaign about whether that’s something they want to release.”
The Economist reported the story with this headline: “Southern change gonna come at last.” The Washington Post stated: “The early poll numbers out of Alabama suggest that seeing a black president on television every day may be having some effect — conscious or unconscious — on the perceptions of voters even in the Republican-friendly deep South.” At least the Post did report that the numbers were from Davis’ pollster, but the other media, including some in Alabama failed to totally make it clear that this was polling paid for by the candidate.
The Davis pollsters also report their polling shows that Davis is as strong as Cobb among white voters (Sparks isn’t mentioned), has a job approval rating of 73 percent favorable and eight percent unfavorable, has higher name recognition than any of the announced or suspect candidates except Roy Moore and holds a 74 percent to 11 percent margin among African American primary voters.
Anzalone/Liszt is a reputable firm which conducts polling and political research, but I cannot concur with the results for the following reasons:
1. The polling gives Davis a job approval rating of 78 percent favorable and eight percent unfavorable. Polling in the same time frame by Survey USA, a respected national polling firm only gives Sen. Richard Shelby a 51 percent job approval number vs. 41 percent who do not approve and Gov. Bob Riley 54 percent approval and 43 percent disapproval. Sen. Jeff Sessions does somewhat better with a 60 percent/31 percent approval-disapproval rate. These comparisons, when compared to Davis do not seem reasonable.
2. The Anzalone/List numbers give President Obama a favorable job approval number of 58 percent vs. 39 percent who do not approve.
The Survey USA poll, as we reported last week, gives Obama a 48 percent favorable job number vs. 49 percent disapproval, and three percent not sure. Something is amiss with the differences in these numbers.
3. It is, I believe, not realistic to make any kind of assumption that Congressman Davis would be as strong among white voters as Chief Justice Cobb although that is what they claim. Polling analysis shows that a great many white voters will try to demonstrate in interviews that they are not prejudiced.
4 I do not believe that a Davis margin of 74 percent to 11 percent among African American voters is necessarily good for him at this point in the campaign.
This criticism of the poll numbers does not reflect a criticism of the candidate.
While it is my personal opinion that Congressman Davis could do more for his state by whispering into the ear of his friend, the President, than as governor, I believe he would make a good governor.
The same day these poll numbers were released last week he gave the commencement address at Saint James, a private school in Montgomery where a largely all-white audience of graduates, faculty, parents and friends, gave him a standing ovation. Many were impressed that he made the talk without notes. I have likewise been impressed, both with his intellect and speaking ability.
King announces another win against drug makers
Six big drug manufacturers settled Medicaid drug pricing lawsuits last week with the state of Alabama for $89 million. Attorney General Troy King announced last Friday.
The companies were among the more than 70 that King sued in 2005, charging them with cheating the state’s taxpayers by manipulating the price that the Medicaid program pays for prescription drugs.
Bob Martin is editor and publisher of The Montgomery Independent. E-mail him at: bob@montgomeryindependent.com